Marketers can get an early read on the chances of a CPG launch succeeding by reviewing four KPIs roughly every three months:
1) Distribution. Distribution needs to build broadly in line with successful launches during the first six months. The critical test then comes in months 6-12: does distribution continue to grow, or does it stall as retailers begin to delist it?
2) Penetration per point of distribution. This indicates how effectively the product is recruiting buyers given its availability. It should be benchmarked against previous successful launches in the category - or comparable categories.
3) Repeat rate. Better still, use consecutive repeat rate if available: the proportion of buyers whose next purchase in the category is the new product again. This provides an early indication that the product experience and value at the price paid are strong enough to generate immediate re-choice, rather than simply eventual repurchase.
4) Rate of sale. Penetration and repeat/frequency translate into the rate of sale retailers see. After the initial launch period, rate of sale and profitability become critical: if the product isn't making enough money compared to alternative uses of the shelf space, distribution is likely to stall or decline.
​